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ASX Listed Goldies

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  • #16
    AUD gold price now at all time highs of $1870 per ounce as the AUD spins lower and gold higher on China worries. Perfect storm for some big gains in ASX goldies being setup here. My picks are RMS, NST & EVN.


    • #17
      EVN making huge gains today and going straight up to target the downtrend line today on all-time high AUD prices. This one has some major momo and volume behind it, so may end up breaking out. A breakout would target the 3.80-4.00 level.

      Presentation out today shows bank debt all due to be repaid, with $300M cash in the bank by years end and production trending towards the 1M oz's per annum level.


      May end up taking over NST at this rate as the market darling as time goes on.

      Helluva gamble, but paying off well so far. Thanks Trumpelstiltskin for torpedoing Trade Talks!

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      • #18
        AUDUSD FX rate now down to 69 and testing huge, multi-year support. AUD could go into freefall mode throughout 2019 as Trade Wars + house price declines + economic slowdown + RBA rate cuts provide the perfect storm for constant devaluation of the currency. Gold price hovering just below the recent all-time highs in AUD - further equity weakness may propel gold in AUD to the 1900-2000 per ounce level.


        • #19
          The "Perfect Storm" for ASX listed gold miners I keep harping on about

          Gold in USD breaks out of the short-term downtrend and continues upwards. Resistance lines are marked.

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          AUD vs USD breaking down below critical support.

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          • #20
            After a bit of a breather, ASX listed goldies are testing multi-month highs or breaking out. Trade Wars not good for overall market and make AUD weak, increasing gold price in that currency.

            EVN (held) - $3.74 high
            RMS (held) - targeting $0.90
            NST - $10.00 high
            GOR - Breakout


            • #21
              Moosie - You ever you ever had a look at ERM? Double the mc of NTL and a million times the prospects......


              • #22
                Originally posted by Crackity View Post
                Moosie - You ever you ever had a look at ERM? Double the mc of NTL and a million times the prospects......

                Can't say I have had a look. I am trying to stay out of the speccy end of town these days and concentrate on trading the large caps for decent gains and minimised risk. Latest drill results not that flash...

                My charts of lies and distortions say that this pupper has spent a long while in the desert. What do you believe has the potential to break her out north of this multi-year downtrend?

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                • #23
                  Great example of a Cup & Handle pattern currently formed up on RMS:

                  As a stock forming this pattern tests old highs, it is likely to incur selling pressure from investors who previously bought at those levels; selling pressure is likely to make price consolidate with a tendency toward a downtrend trend for a period of four days to four weeks, before advancing higher. A cup and handle is considered a bullish continuation pattern and is used to identify buying opportunities.
                  It is worth considering the following when detecting cup and handle patterns:
                  • Length - Generally, cups with longer and more "U" shaped bottoms provide a stronger signal. Avoid cups with a sharp "V" bottoms.
                  • Depth - Ideally, the cup should not be overly deep. Avoid handles that are overly deep also, as handles should form in the top half of the cup pattern.
                  • Volume - Volume should decrease as prices decline and remain lower than average in the base of the bowl; it should then increase when the stock begins to make its move higher, back up to test the previous high.
                  • A retest of previous resistance is not required to touch or come within several ticks of the old high; however, the further the top of the handle is away from the highs, the more significant the breakout needs to be.
                  A profit target is determined by measuring the distance between the bottom of the cup and the pattern’s breakout level, and extending that distance upward from the breakout. For example, if the distance between the bottom of the cup and handle breakout level is 20 points, a profit target is placed 20 points above the pattern's handle. Stop loss orders may be placed either below the handle or below the cup depending on the trader’s risk tolerance and market volatility.

                  As such, RMS breaking out above the 90 resistance line gives us a price target of $1.07 (90 high + 17 cents top to bottom low of cup) for a possible gain of 20%

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                  Last edited by Moosie; 28-05-19, 08:17 PM.


                  • #24
                    Well, didn't take long for RMS to breakout in a big way today. Nice move with blue sky ahead. Target price is $1.07 as momentum, a higher gold price (with pending breakout itself), and a weak AUD.

                    (Disc - holding, lots...)

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                    • #25
                      Price of gold rocketing back up today as global indices turn risk-off and Chinese manufacturing sector contracts for 2nd month in a row. Yield curves are now well inverted and firing off huge red flashing lights to investors.

                      AUD gold price now at all time highs and one good days away from the $100 p/oz mark.



                      • #26
                        Looks like a short-term breakout above $1300 USD per ounce and a new high over $1900 AUD coming right up for gold. Can clearly see in these 2 charts how the AUD fall has provided a put for AUD gold prices. RBA rate decision tomorrow, with bettors taking a 90% odds of a cut. I;d say some very dovish overtones in the commentary will be evident as well.

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                        Last edited by Moosie; 03-06-19, 11:17 AM.


                        • #27
                          AUD gold just hit an all time high as the rush to safety continues.

                          RBA rate decision up today. Firmly in the cut camp.

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                          • #28
                            Looking at a 10 year chart, gold has now broken the very long-term downtrend line in USD. Only thing standing in it's way now is the horizontal resistance in the $1350-$1370 range. A breakout there would suggest a huge rally being set in motion and new bull market forming. Exciting times!

                            ECB minutes up tonight - expect ever more dovish talk from the perma-dove Draghi. Yet to see which way the Fed will go here as well.

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                            • #29
                              Gold now at $1360 USD in early Eurozone trading and breaking out. AUD price now at all time highs of $1970 and looking to target $2000 as AUD continues to sink.

                              The perfect storm continues to blow in the ASX gold miners favour. Most up a solid 4-8% today alone.

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                              • #30
                                Thought I would plagiarise some of my recent post under NTL at ShareTrader.

                                Gold companies with the highest production often become overvalued and anyway, their returns on investment are likely to be lower, although, generally speaking, they do have lower risk. Newcrest, the largest Australian gold company, languished for many years because it overpaid to buy Lihir Gold (a large mine offshore of Papua New Guinea) that needed a lot of money spent in order to keep its production going, even though it is a rich mine.
                                Be careful buying companies whose share prices are going up most . The gold market on the ASX is a wild west arena and fluctuates strongly, along with executives and directors who are intent on retaining their positions. Market manipulation is rife, as is leaky news with insiders (or "friends" of insiders) getting advantage.
                                Recently the ASX has seen a number of gold producers get into serious trouble, including administration, looking for takeover, or committing to adverse funding at the expense of existing shareholders.

                                Often the mid-tier producers give better returns while developers (those with reserves who are establishing mines and processing plants) have higher risk but can give higher returns. Then there are explorers who have not yet established sufficient reserves and resources to consider a mine. These are the riskiest but can give very high returns and so should have smaller amounts invested.

                                A gold company's prospects are linked to:
                                a) its reserves - the amount of gold in the ground that is considered by a professional geologist to be economic for mining according to international standards (JORC)
                                b) its resources - the amount of gold in the ground including reserves but also that which is not yet assessed as reserve but for which drilling results indicate that there is reasonable probability that it could be
                                c) the level of production per annum
                                d) the life of the mine(s)
                                e) the cost of extracting and producing the gold over the life of the mine(s) - otherwise known as ASIC = All In Sustaining Costs
                                f)) the price of gold, taking into account the level of hedging in place

                                There are various measures used to assess the value of a gold company. Some of the most significant ones are:
                                i) the Enterprise Value (EV) to Annual Production ratio ($/oz)
                                ii) the EV to Reserve ratio ($/oz)
                                iii) the EV to Resource ratio ($/oz)
                                iv) Life of Mine in years, which generally speaking is the reserves divided by annual production
                                v) the Price of Gold less the AISC which gives an indication of the operating profit

                                Companies with high production generally have higher EV ratios than those with lower production. This reflects their lower risk. However, it is important to understand what the reserves and production output and costs will be going forward.

                                I do not advise buying any gold company and putting the shares on the shelf. I think they need constant monitoring and readiness to sell. There is too much constant change to let them sleep, including the price of gold, mine situations and market sentiment (which is often manipulated).
                                As gold is mined and produced, reserves lessen along with mine life. Exploration consumes millions of dollars but is necessary to establish new resources and reserves for continuing production. Establishing a process plant for new mines costs hundreds of millions.

                                I have realised an average of 38% from gold companies over the past 4 years but I am currently close to break-even at present (positively) which probably gives some idea as to the volatility and risks involved.
                                I invest rather than trade and so need to look at a long term picture, which is not easy with gold companies that delve underground to extract the gold and cannot "see" the gold but have to use various geotechnical methods to estimate where it is economic to mine.

                                Disclosure: I currently have shares in 21 gold companies on the ASX.