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  • OCA - Oceania Healthcare.

    What's the bets on Oceania's listing price? Tegel, the last public listing, gave 7% stag profit on day one. Like Tegel, Oceania is oversubscribed but at the bottom end of the indicative price range after a book build.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Hectorplains View Post
    What's the bets on Oceania's listing price? Tegel, the last public listing, gave 7% stag profit on day one. Like Tegel, Oceania is oversubscribed but at the bottom end of the indicative price range after a book build.

    You asking for bets on the first traded price or closing price at the end of first days trading Hector?

    i reckon first trade at 85 cents.....


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    • #3
      Originally posted by Crackity View Post


      You asking for bets on the first traded price or closing price at the end of first days trading Hector?

      i reckon first trade at 85 cents.....

      Was thinking end of day trade price but opening works as well. Could even be the same figure! Though I think it might come out high 80's and drift back to finish at 83c.

      Comment


      • #4
        Listing tomorrow. Stag?

        https://nzx.com/files/static/cms-doc...%20Listing.pdf

        Company: Oceania Healthcare Limited
        Issuer Code: OCA
        ISIN: NZOCAE0002S0
        Short Name: Oceania Healthcare
        Registered Office: Affinity House, 2 Hargreaves Street St Mary’s Bay, Auckland 1011
        Website: www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz
        Telephone Number: +64 9 361 0350
        Financial Year End: 31 May
        Nature of Business: Oceania Healthcare operates in the New Zealand residential aged care and retirement village sectors, offering residents villas and apartments within its retirement villages, and also providing a full range of residential aged care services (including rest home, hospital and dementia level care) at its aged care facilities.
        Directors: Elizabeth Coutts (Chair), Alan Isaac, Kerry Prendergast, Patrick McCawe, Hugh FitzSimons
        Details of Issue: The Offer is an offer of between 192.3 million and 263.2 million shares in Oceania Healthcare Limited, representing 35.1% to 42.4% of the total Shares on issue immediately following the Offer. The Offer includes a Broker Firm Offer, Priority Offer, and Institutional Offer. There is no General Public Offer.
        Quoted Securities at Completion of Offer: Between 548.6 million and 620.4 million
        Minimum Subscription Amount: 5,000 shares for the Broker Firm Offer and 500 shares for the Priority Offer
        Offer Price: Indicative Price Range of NZD$0.76 – NZD$1.04 per
        Share Tick Size: $0.01
        Joint Lead Manager, Organising Participant and Arranger: Deutsche Craigs Limited, First NZ Capital Securities Limited, Macquarie Capital (New Zealand)
        Limited Auditors: PricewaterhouseCoopers Solicitors: Russell McVeagh Registrar: Computershare Investor Services Limited (“RMLT”)
        Settlement Status: NZCDC Settlement System
        Product Disclosure Statement Dated: Friday, 31 March 2017
        Priority Offer Opens: Thursday, 13 April 2017 Broker
        Firm Offer Opens: Thursday, 13 April 2017
        Priority Offer Closes: Friday, 21 April 2017
        Broker Firm Offer Closes: Friday, 28 April 2017
        Settlement and Allotment Date: Thursday, 4 May 2017
        Mailing of Holder Notices: Friday, 5 May 2017
        Expected Commencement of Trading on the NZX Main Board on a Normal Basis: Friday, 5 May 2017
        Mark Peterson Interim Chief Executive Officer NZX Limited

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        • #5
          What time does this start trading? 10am like everything else or later, 12pm etc?

          Thanks!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by cometobed View Post
            Listing tomorrow. Stag?
            Not really. Measly 2.5% Good depth on offer though.

            Comment


            • #7
              Still digesting but looks like a great result. Great cashflow, great development margins, well done to holders.

              Comment


              • #8
                That depth was looking amazing with a lack of sellers, but in the last few minutes before open, some serious sellers have arrived.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Arianna View Post
                  That depth was looking amazing with a lack of sellers, but in the last few minutes before open, some serious sellers have arrived.
                  It seems Mr Market is hard to please. Stunning results above expectations, diluted EPS of 12.4 cents and shareprice of under a dollar, with a payout ratio of 50-60%. Meaning you get paid above the current interest rate to hold these shares and earn another 5-6% interest for 'free'.

                  I hope to see some strong buying this afternoon.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    "Buy the rumour, sell the fact" in full effect here. Was well, well telegraphed a while ago. TA wise this could be a huge shooting star at least signalling a short-term reversal.

                    No doubt the news is good, but individual investors need to manage their expectations and review timelines when these types of actions go on.

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                    • #11
                      Must say I was very impressed by the result. Development margin really impressed and cash flow (which we all know is the lifeblood of business) was well ahead of IPO forecast.
                      Seems to me they're well on track to meet IPO forecast of 8.4 cps underlying profit in FY18. The question is given the multiples this sector trades on (e.g. RYM 25 SUM 15) with very strong demographic tailwinds for the next 20-25 years what PE is applicable here ?
                      My thoughts...if they can prove they can stay on track and build credibility during the year with an interim result that's on track I think they could expand their PE from the current 11.6 where the market is awaiting proof of performance to somewhere in the mid teens. Potential to increase over the next year to circa $1.30 IMO.
                      Interestingly based on forecast distribution level of 55% of underlying profit this company provides a very good, (for this sector) dividend yield of 4.7% at 98 cents.
                      Disc: Hold.
                      Last edited by Beagle; 28-07-17, 05:13 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Beagle View Post
                        Must say I was very impressed by the result. Development margin really impressed and cash flow (which we all know is the lifeblood of business) was well ahead of IPO forecast.
                        Seems to me they're well on track to meet IPO forecast of 8.4 cps underlying profit in FY18. The question is given the multiples this sector trades on (e.g. RYM 25 SUM 15) with very strong demographic tailwinds for the next 20-25 years what PE is applicable here ?
                        My thoughts...if they can prove they can stay on track and build credibility during the year with an interim result that's on track I think they could expand their PE from the current 11.6 where the market is awaiting proof of performance to somewhere in the mid teens. Potential to increase over the next year to circa $1.30 IMO.
                        Interestingly based on forecast distribution level of 55% of underlying profit this company provides a very good, (for this sector) dividend yield of 4.7% at 98 cents.
                        Disc: Hold.
                        Is it just me, or is everyone overlooking the book values of these companies and their over exposure to property price swings? I am noting some very weak markets price wise, with a huge increase in houses for sale, in CHCH, Auckland and elsewhere. Also noted that OECD markets are also under assault from the same forces. Not likeing the lower highs that SUM & MET have recently put in as well (RYM is an outlier...). Don't even mention the extra wage bills coming soon.

                        Just my 2 cents, but seems like we might see some PE compression as possible write-downs on valuations could easily surpass the profits these entities make if momo starts going the wrong way in the real estate sector (which i believe it is). No doubt these companies will do amazingly, long-term, due to the Grey Wave starting to lap our shores, but the golden years of rising profits and huge capital gains on book values seems over for now.

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                        • #13
                          Moosie. I would simply refer you to the undisputed fact that RYM grew underlying profit throughout the GFC. Yes the SP was affected but the fact that it grew underlying EPS throughout the greatest financial crisis since the great depression of 1929 speaks for itself. Yes we could see some PE contraction from RYM in particular. I predicted 3.5 years ago on ST that its SP would ostensibly go nowhere for that reason for 3 years and got that call bang on the money but in my view this and SUM represent good value in this sector at present and with compelling demographics over the next 20-25 years these make a great long term hold in my view. Immigration will continue to be supportive of the real estate market and the Govt will have to up the ante with support rates for late stage care and indeed have already committed to doing so.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Beagle View Post
                            Must say I was very impressed by the result. Development margin really impressed and cash flow (which we all know is the lifeblood of business) was well ahead of IPO forecast.
                            Seems to me they're well on track to meet IPO forecast of 8.4 cps underlying profit in FY18. The question is given the multiples this sector trades on (e.g. RYM 25 SUM 15) with very strong demographic tailwinds for the next 20-25 years what PE is applicable here ?
                            My thoughts...if they can prove they can stay on track and build credibility during the year with an interim result that's on track I think they could expand their PE from the current 11.6 where the market is awaiting proof of performance to somewhere in the mid teens. Potential to increase over the next year to circa $1.30 IMO.
                            Interestingly based on forecast distribution level of 55% of underlying profit this company provides a very good, (for this sector) dividend yield of 4.7% at 98 cents.
                            Disc: Hold.
                            Excellent post Beagle. The strong underlying earnings help mitigate the holding risks, with exposure to the upside potential. I agree, it's a great result and a no brainer to put into a portfolio. Surprised not to see this a little higher.

                            Moosoe, regarding Auckland property, the heat has gone, it's back to a more sustainable normal level of growth. Yes there's risk, name an investment without it.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Target valuation $1.29

                              I remain well positioned.

                              Comment

                              HLG

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