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  • Originally posted by Moosie View Post
    Latest Australian RE sector prices getting slmmed again, worst decline and starting to surpass the GFC now. Auckland prices also well down, but BF&T say she's sweet as, she'll be right:

    BF&T Report: https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market-rep.../market-update
    Aussie house prices: https://www.theguardian.com/australi...plunge-january

    Now, OCA doesn't have nearly as much exposure as RYM or SUM, but they will track lower as the entire sector takes a beating. A high tide floats all boats, but it can also ground some boats when it sinks back down.

    I'd reassess as a possible buy nearer to 90 cents.
    So moosie, are you getting ready to reassess?

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    • Originally posted by sb9 View Post

      So moosie, are you getting ready to reassess?
      Still a good 10% away from reassessment time, and in decline so would give plenty of time to do so. Not a good look when declining while sector leaders RYM & SUM have broken near-term downtrends and are looking up again...

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      • Interesting to see that SUM's flagging of a slowdown not only hasn't affected OCA, OCA is actually on a wee rise! Any theory's out there as to why?

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        • Originally posted by nextbigthing View Post
          Interesting to see that SUM's flagging of a slowdown not only hasn't affected OCA, OCA is actually on a wee rise! Any theory's out there as to why?
          Pretty obvious. Following coutas theorem of 1 RYM = 2 SUM = 10 OCA, OCA is currently quite undervalued - it should sit at $1.22 ;

          But apart from that - OCA offers more need based services (old age care) while SUM's focus is still on "lifestyle retirement", which is much more discretionary.

          Less exposure to the in my view absolutely overblown fear of (materially) dropping property prices.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by BlackPeter View Post

            Pretty obvious. Following coutas theorem of 1 RYM = 2 SUM = 10 OCA, OCA is currently quite undervalued - it should sit at $1.22 ;

            But apart from that - OCA offers more need based services (old age care) while SUM's focus is still on "lifestyle retirement", which is much more discretionary.

            Less exposure to the in my view absolutely overblown fear of (materially) dropping property prices.
            Thanks BP.
            OCA may offer a more needs based service, but it still does this with a very large property backing. So if SUM has re-rated down due to property, OCA should also, just to a lesser extent. I supposed it can easily be argued it had already done so prior to this little bump up, which is fine. But that still doesn't explain the little bump back up, which has my interest.
            Kind of strange that the shareprice ran up to around $1.20 last time Macquarie offloaded a bunch. Now we're seeing another little run-up in the shareprice, when recent market news suggests perhaps this shouldn't be the case. As Peter Lynch points out, the joys of not being the nextbigthing is that you can easily get in and out of a share to take advantage of little things like a Macquarie induced rise (if that is the case).

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            • 15 million shares traded today with 0.9% sp increase. Some smart money moving in, possible inclusion in NZX50 index?.
              BB also indicating an expansion breakout.
              Attached Files
              Last edited by Milkyway; 02-05-19, 06:40 PM.

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              • Originally posted by Milkyway View Post
                15 million shares traded today with 0.9% sp increase. Some smart money moving in, possible inclusion in NZX50 index?.
                BB also indicating an expansion breakout.
                Nice catch there MW. Plenty of off-market trades going on there and nice volume indeed. SP going up the bollinger bands could run for a bit longer if it gets above $1.10. Seems retirement is getting a bit of a boost again - RYM looking to break north, SUM getting a bit of support and now OCA seeing some interest.

                My manual market cap count puts them at about 41st on MCAP on the NZX, so a definite possibility there. Only a month until we find out.

                Comment


                • Since that 18m shares week it turned over the following week right on the downward trendline and gone back to average trading volumes narrow spread of a few cents. Six weeks later looks like a tentative short term (weekly basis) uptrend going back to test that downward trend line. Solid support below in the $1.00-$.98 range.

                  Weekly chart, log scale EMA 17/43.

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                  • Did Oceania ever make it into the NZX50

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                    • OCA don't seem to be having the big advertising drive like SUM are having at the moment. Does this mean that they're not seeing the dropoff in sales that SUM was noticing, or that they are asleep behind the wheel and the next result may not be so good, or that they have bigger problems to sort out at the moment?

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                      • I can tell you they arent asleep at the wheel on Windermere. That development seems to be going up nice and smoothly. Every day there is progress. Concrete down, structural steels going in, its a hive of activity.

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                        • Originally posted by Bailey View Post
                          OCA don't seem to be having the big advertising drive like SUM are having at the moment. Does this mean that they're not seeing the dropoff in sales that SUM was noticing, or that they are asleep behind the wheel and the next result may not be so good, or that they have bigger problems to sort out at the moment?
                          Maverick on the other forum put up some good info on site visits. I think its clear that very few of the units almost built in FY19 have been delivered and sold as at balance date (31/5/19). I am expecting profit to decline for FY19 compared to FY18...my best estimate is underlying profit of $45m. My guess for FY20 is $65-70m.
                          OCA more a FY20 story in my view. The Macquarie overhang (42% of all shares) is going to take a long time for the market to digest and I think a further two traches will be required. I am not sure how this will be effected with a profit decline to be reported next month. Disc: Hold a very small stake, just one tenth of what I used to own.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Beagle View Post

                            Maverick on the other forum put up some good info on site visits. I think its clear that very few of the units almost built in FY19 have been delivered and sold as at balance date (31/5/19). I am expecting profit to decline for FY19 compared to FY18...my best estimate is underlying profit of $45m. My guess for FY20 is $65-70m.
                            OCA more a FY20 story in my view. The Macquarie overhang (42% of all shares) is going to take a long time for the market to digest and I think a further two traches will be required. I am not sure how this will be effected with a profit decline to be reported next month. Disc: Hold a very small stake, just one tenth of what I used to own.
                            Could be that the SP is now reflecting the factors that you talk of, after a period last year of over optimistic projections and SP getting pumped up into $1.20's. That was never sustainable imo. Anyway, another good company to accumulate building a long hold position. Pity they don't have a DRP.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Beagle View Post

                              Maverick on the other forum put up some good info on site visits. I think its clear that very few of the units almost built in FY19 have been delivered and sold as at balance date (31/5/19). I am expecting profit to decline for FY19 compared to FY18...my best estimate is underlying profit of $45m. My guess for FY20 is $65-70m.
                              OCA more a FY20 story in my view. The Macquarie overhang (42% of all shares) is going to take a long time for the market to digest and I think a further two traches will be required. I am not sure how this will be effected with a profit decline to be reported next month. Disc: Hold a very small stake, just one tenth of what I used to own.
                              Jeez — F18 $52m .....down to $45m in F19 and then $65m in F20

                              The hype and all the good stuff suggests more than 12% pa earnings growth over 2 years ....what’s wrong?

                              probably says why share price is where it is

                              i’ve Still not worked out how they sold heaps more units in H119 and only reported a very small increase in underlying earnings.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Buzz View Post

                                Could be that the SP is now reflecting the factors that you talk of, after a period last year of over optimistic projections and SP getting pumped up into $1.20's. That was never sustainable imo. Anyway, another good company to accumulate building a long hold position. Pity they don't have a DRP.
                                looking at their cash flows shouldn’t be paying dividends in first place.

                                essentially borrowing to do so.

                                Comment

                                HLG

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