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TRA - Turners Automotive Group

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  • Originally posted by BlackPeter View Post

    You would not want me to interfere with the first green shots? As soon as I go in they crash.

    TRA is clearly bad luck for me ... no point in trying my luck with them again.

    But apart from that -- always a bit suspicious if i don't understand the market movements- first down from nearly $4 to $2.17(or thereabouts) - and now up to $2.58 again.

    So - market thinks $4 was too much (and I think the market is right).

    Market thinks $2.17 was too low. Who knows.

    What if the current price is again on the high side? Might be a good time to sell ;
    Yes who knows.
    My research suggested to me their business model is first rate, and their strategy is sound.Directors with a good record and plenty of skin in the game .
    Each division bulked up and now plenty of organic growth avaliable.This growth will be able to fund increasing fully imputed dividends.
    Looked as though I had it wrong when sp hit $2.14.However I never doubted the model is right and they have the right people to achieve their strategy.
    I think the next year to 18 months will see TRA as being rerated as a very good investment.
    I well remember EBO and MFT having similar speed woobles .
    I see me holding TRA forever.So no target price from me.
    Yes the market is both often right and often wrong,and that is why I trust my own research..

    .
    Last edited by percy; 15-05-19, 05:53 PM.

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    • TRA now moving up through the 180 day moving average. Looking good.

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      • This Moose is still very much unconvinced.

        As I said before, wake me up when it hits about $2.70. Why? Well, you now have a situation where the stock is now overbought on very low volume and bumping up against very tough resistance in the form of a nearly 3 year old downtrend top channel AND the SMA200. Zooming out, we can see the shareholder wealth destruction current management has overseen over this time period.

        Sure, this has been a great TRADE for anyone who bought the oversold levels around $2.14, but it seems everyone who still holds this stock is an INVESTOR in it long-term. As such, the downtrend channel still holds firm and cheering on this latest bounce, as outlined above, is very much premature. Anyone looking to climb aboard needs:

        A) A clear and clean break of both the SMA200 and downtrend channel line;
        B) Much, much, much more volume needs to come into this stock. Current levels are very weak at best;
        C) FA needs to improve, and I don't mean just upping the dividend by a single cent per annum.
        D) If the SP fails at first test (very likely), you then need to see a solid lower high and restest in a short-space of time, with a break as per point A & B.

        IMHO, shareholders should only start congratulating themselves once these conditions are met, otherwise the SP is going straight back into the current (and still holding trend) - DOWN.

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        Last edited by Moosie; 15-05-19, 07:53 PM.

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        • What a great disappointment you will not be joining the TRA register.

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          • To me, you two are talking different strategies, while percy is a long term holder/investor maybe with an average buy price well below the current price plus dividends, moosie is talking trading it.
            So not going to agree -
            Trading it would be looking to for an exit if bounces off the upper trend line
            Disc - have traded it (and collected a dividend along the way) but don't hold any at present

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            • Originally posted by percy View Post
              What a great disappointment you will not be joining the TRA register.
              I'll give you a couple of these for your tenacity and keeping me honest percy me old mate.

              (PS - The Beagle took a chunk out of one for denying him a recent win. A Moose would never do such a thing...)

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              • I love them.

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                • Originally posted by Moosie View Post
                  This Moose is still very much unconvinced.

                  As I said before, wake me up when it hits about $2.70. Why? Well, you now have a situation where the stock is now overbought on very low volume and bumping up against very tough resistance in the form of a nearly 3 year old downtrend top channel AND the SMA200. Zooming out, we can see the shareholder wealth destruction current management has overseen over this time period.

                  Sure, this has been a great TRADE for anyone who bought the oversold levels around $2.14, but it seems everyone who still holds this stock is an INVESTOR in it long-term. As such, the downtrend channel still holds firm and cheering on this latest bounce, as outlined above, is very much premature. Anyone looking to climb aboard needs:

                  A) A clear and clean break of both the SMA200 and downtrend channel line;
                  B) Much, much, much more volume needs to come into this stock. Current levels are very weak at best;
                  C) FA needs to improve, and I don't mean just upping the dividend by a single cent per annum.
                  D) If the SP fails at first test (very likely), you then need to see a solid lower high and restest in a short-space of time, with a break as per point A & B.

                  IMHO, shareholders should only start congratulating themselves once these conditions are met, otherwise the SP is going straight back into the current (and still holding trend) - DOWN.

                  Click image for larger version Name:	big.chart.jpg Views:	0 Size:	152.3 KB ID:	13677
                  What was this song: "the future's not ours to see...que sera sera". Great song, by the way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc

                  Great chart as well - Thank You, Moosie! And yes, will be interesting whether the SP breaks this time the upper boundary of the down channel. Funny that the critical time is likely to coincide with the release of their annual results. I am not holding my breath - might well turn into a case of buy the rumour, sell the facts ...

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                  • A big welcome to the buyers at $2.60.

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                    • Originally posted by percy View Post
                      A big welcome to the buyers at $2.60.

                      percy - you need an avatar otherwise you are wandering around FP naked and we don’t want that. Here’s one I reckon that may suit.



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                      • Originally posted by Moosie View Post

                        I'll give you a couple of these for your tenacity and keeping me honest percy me old mate.

                        (PS - The Beagle took a chunk out of one for denying him a recent win. A Moose would never do such a thing...)

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                        I'm still hurting over the lack of sharing of the prize pool. That other half was destined for my chompers!

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                        • Originally posted by MajorMoke View Post

                          I'm still hurting over the lack of sharing of the prize pool. That other half was destined for my chompers!
                          I might leave the prize-giving to a much more adept (and fair-minded) individual next time. I hear fatportfolio is a good mediator and assesses all criteria before making huge calls such as the giving away of chocolate fish. I should have realised how important chocolate fish are to the national psyche - my apologies as a humble immigrant from the land of Ice & Snow!

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                          • Originally posted by Moosie View Post

                            I might leave the prize-giving to a much more adept (and fair-minded) individual next time. I hear fatportfolio is a good mediator and assesses all criteria before making huge calls such as the giving away of chocolate fish. I should have realised how important chocolate fish are to the national psyche - my apologies as a humble immigrant from the land of Ice & Snow!
                            Golly you have a lot yet to enjoy.
                            Add a chocolate fish to your next icecream slice.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Moosie View Post

                              I might leave the prize-giving to a much more adept (and fair-minded) individual next time. I hear fatportfolio is a good mediator and assesses all criteria before making huge calls such as the giving away of chocolate fish. I should have realised how important chocolate fish are to the national psyche - my apologies as a humble immigrant from the land of Ice & Snow!
                              You're going to have to do better than that if you want a prize Moosie.

                              In depth analysis of a company as an investment prospect with full posting of all research will be the likely winner, and there's still plenty of time and the competition is still wide open!

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                              • I don't understand why people think EV's will be the downfall of Turners. EV's are like any other car, they're bought, they're sold, people upgrade, people need finance. Turners are allowed to sell EV's, in fact some very simple research shows they have 15 for sale online at the moment. How they are powered has no relevance for Turners.
                                https://www.turners.co.nz/Cars/Used-...=7&pagesize=24

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                                HLG

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