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Trade Wars - Not Good, And Not Easy To Win

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  • #16
    Well, as if it wasn't bad enough already, Trump is now going fot gold by threatening his best friend Japan and now imposing tariffs on Mexico starting in a week in a half!

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ico-trump-says

    Sounds to me like Trump is going for the triple down in a losing situation strategy. Sounds very familiar...

    This clown is going to cause global chaos. Hope everyone is prepped. US futures down a further 1%+ on the news.

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    • #17
      Trump is a Narcissist with a touch of Dementia. Lol

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Moosie View Post
        Well, as if it wasn't bad enough already, Trump is now going fot gold by threatening his best friend Japan and now imposing tariffs on Mexico starting in a week in a half!

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ico-trump-says

        Sounds to me like Trump is going for the triple down in a losing situation strategy. Sounds very familiar...

        This clown is going to cause global chaos. Hope everyone is prepped. US futures down a further 1%+ on the news.
        If 1% down is all you're expecting then it's hardly worth fretting over chicken little

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Couta View Post
          Trump is a Narcissist with a touch of Dementia. Lol
          Question is, how do we use that information for our own investing benefit

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          • #20
            Originally posted by nextbigthing View Post

            If 1% down is all you're expecting then it's hardly worth fretting over chicken little
            Check out the DJIA chart - recently cut major support and sliced through all moving averages. A 1% futures down move is usual a precursor for much steeper falls and in the current downtrend, this flag is waving more rapidly as momentum takes it down fast.

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            • #21
              Yield inversion on the charts again, with 3 month and 10 year treasuries crossing decisively this time.

              Click image for larger version

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              • #22
                Well, here come the next, and last $300 Billion in tariffs! Be a surprise if Xi doesn't turn up, but there is a 99% chance no deal will come about at such a meeting. These events are overarching, theoretical policy pow-wows on a global scale, not a place to hash out the finer details of trade deals. No doubt Trump cannot see that, however - more than likely just wants some reassurance he's still relevant and not reviled by every world leader with nice, glossy photo ops and handshakes.

                https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/trum...mediately.html

                Funny (and very ironic) that not a year ago Trump did all this:

                Cancels Joint Statement with G7: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44427660

                Cancels meeting with Putin at G20: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/...171206613.html

                Cancels North Korea Summit: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...nuclear-summit

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                • #23
                  Yes I struggle to understand why the US markets are now just within 2% of their peak. The best realistic possibility is that Xi actually turns up to the G20 Summit and at a 40,000 ft perspective they agree that they will get back to the negotiation table. As you quite rightly point out Moosie, this is ostensibly an ego assurance trip for the trumpet, desperate to continue to wield his power and appear really important and a good photo op...(hope they include Ivanka so the photos are slightly more palatable).

                  Deeply ingrained differences remain regarding IP and theft thereof and what measures to be put in place to protect same...I think the two sides are considerably further apart than they were two months ago. A comprehensive trade deal looks "challenging" to say the very least.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Beagle View Post
                    Yes I struggle to understand why the US markets are now just within 2% of their peak.
                    Debt. Loads of debt. YUGELY cheap debt. Look at what the RBNZ & RBA doing, cutting rates when markets are at all-time highs, unemployment is at multi-decade lows and the economy is still growing at a reasonable rate. Sheer insanity.

                    And guess what? The Fed ain't far behind. Central banks are absolute scared ****less of what they have done in the past decade and are trying to pre-empt the natural business cycle. Just like intravenous drugs, they are disrupting an entire system and keeping ti flowing to keep the good times going.

                    Kick kick kick, kick that can for all it's worth!

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                    • #25
                      Yeap, she's looking like a really well kicked can now !
                      Somehow they need to inflate their way out of the quagmire so balance sheet footings look more reasonable but there's hardly any inflation...what to do ? I know...more quantitative easing, bring back Helicopter Ben Bernake

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                      • #26
                        It might seem like madness but it's been going on for a very very long time, who are we to second guess whether it will blow up in everyone's face, let alone when. Best imho to buy the beaten down long hold earners .. and hold, and trade the trends on the growth volatiles. Personally it's not helped to second guess or worry about global macroeconomics or markets, they continually confound and befuddle when money is to be made for those who just manage their circumstances right now, not assuming, presuming or precluding anything that may or may not happen.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Buzz View Post
                          It might seem like madness but it's been going on for a very very long time, who are we to second guess whether it will blow up in everyone's face, let alone when. Best imho to buy the beaten down long hold earners .. and hold, and trade the trends on the growth volatiles. Personally it's not helped to second guess or worry about global macroeconomics or markets, they continually confound and befuddle when money is to be made for those who just manage their circumstances right now, not assuming, presuming or precluding anything that may or may not happen.
                          "Don't fight the Fed"

                          Best advice I ever heeded.

                          Comment

                          HLG

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